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In
the art of gambling there is a tool to assist
people in making wise bets and avoiding
foolish bets. It's called the
bet to pot ratio. We'll
describe the concept and then apply it to
finding a rapture believes optimum behavior.
In
this analytical process, five factors are
considered. Each factor interplays
with the other four. This analysis
is designed to give the gambler a better
understanding of what he is about to do or not
do. The five factors to consider
are:
1) What is the context in
which the bet is being made?
2) What can be
won"? What are the benefits
of winning?
3) What is the probability of
winning?
4) What can be
lost? What are the consequences of
losing?
5) What is the probability of
losing?
From
this analysis, the three possible conclusions
are:
This is a wise choice. Go for it.
This is a losers bet. Stay away
from it.
The results are in the middle.
This analysis gives no clear answer about what
to do or not do.
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The Question to be
analyzed:
Given the present conditions,
circumstances, what is the most
sensible course of action for a rapture
believer to take?
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1) What
is the context in which the bet is being made?
The
Earth's capacity to support human life is
rapidly being destroyed. We have
about five years within which to begin making
major changes before we pass the point where Global
Warming becomes unstoppable and produces catastrophic,
disastrous, deadly, irreversible results.
2) What can be
won"? What are the benefits
of ignoring Global Warming?
A
few of the already wealthy people will
temporarily have more money in their
vaults. Some will squander their
future for present-time, short-term pleasures.
Other than that, there aren't any benefits.
3) What is the probability of
winning?
If
winning is as describe above, then there is
nothing to win. If we continue to
ignore Global Warming, there is a good
chance that we will win nothing, unless, of
course, you, like the rapture believers,
consider death and destruction as
winning.
4) What
can be lost? What are the
consequences of ignoring Global
Warming?
The environment will be drastically
altered.
The Earth’s temperature will rise about eighteen degrees
Fahrenheit causing most large life forms on the entire planet to become
extinct. The temperature has already risen by two
degrees. With another degree of temperature rise, (two degrees
at the most) Global Warming will become unstoppable.
The ocean level will rise by several feet forcing millions (perhaps
even billions) of people out of their homes. **rgw2 ¹ 100 million people live within three feet of
sea level. Ocean level rise
is already beginning to show up. The associated problems are
also showing up. For example, thousands of acres of coastal
farmlands have become unusable because salty ocean water has contaminated
the coastal ground water.
Millions of square miles of the world's most
beautiful and productive land will be under water. Major
cities like London, Venice, New York, Washington, New Orleans will be mostly under
water, as will much of Florida and Louisiana.
Glaciers and mountain snow caps will
disappear completely leaving an estimated twenty to thirty percent of the world’s population without fresh water in the dry
season. Entire ecosystems (trees, plants, animals, fish,
insects, etc.) that these mountain, glacial waters support will also
die. (This melting process is already happening all over the
world, and the rate of snow-cap melt is increasing every year.
See the reference below titled, "PBS - Nova - Extreme Ice.")
Billions of people will die of environmental exposure, from disease, from
starvation, or from human violence.
Dozens of other highly destructive environmental changes will occur.
Many changes are already well under way such as those causing the unusual
and severe weather patterns. In areas such as northern China, hundreds of
square miles of farmland are drying up and turning onto deserts. Each change is amplifying the
effects of the other changes. Their combined effect, if allowed
to continue, will soon overpower all opposition. The consequences,
already devastating, deadly, will soon become irreversible!
4) What is the probability of
losing this bet?
The Probability
of Losing is about 99 %
Many
people will say the above description and the
seriousness of Global Warming is
exaggerated and/or that we have plenty of time
in which to resolve this problem.
The evidence overwhelms both of these excuses
for not taking action, now.
Reference
1: The Doubters Corner
²
Reference
2: The Rate and Severity of Change
²
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The
Bottom Line:
"Is ignoring Global
Warming a wise choice or a foolish
bet?"
What
Can Be Won? There is almost nothing to
win.
Probability
of Winning: The probability of
winning is zero
The
Loss: What can be lost is astronomical.
The lives of billions of human and trillions
of other life forms are being put at risk.
The
probability of Losing:
probability of Losing: 99% We are already loosing
this bet, big time, so the only question is: How severe will the
loses be?
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Is this a bet you want to
make?
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